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Betfair tennis trading strategy – How you should really be tennis trading


so when you’re trading tennis on Betfair
is there a right and wrong way of trading tennis properly well of course
there is there is a correct way of trading in it goes hand-in-hand with
another video that I produced and if you’re interested in learning how you
should be approaching your trading of tennis then watch the rest of this video
if you’re interested in learning to trade on Betfair then visit the BET
angel’ academy where you have detailed structured Betfair trading courses or
why not visit our website where you can download a free trial of BET angel
professional but also visit the forum where you can get detailed images
examples and downloadable files and don’t forget to subscribe to our youtube
channel and click on the bell icon if you want notification of new videos as
they’re released so is there a right and wrong way to try tennis yes there is if
you want to understand the theory behind this then you need to look at the video
that was the secret to profitable betting and trading because that gives
you the basis on which you would do what I’m about to do here and the way that
I’m about to analyze it but basically when you look at any market you have to
frame an opportunity within the market and tennis is no different now the
advantage that you have with tennis is that its structured you basically will
find that as you go through the match you hit certain points and those points
are discounted into the chance of the player going on to win the match so if
you look at pulse racing pre off for example it’s just driven by opinion
whether the horses looks good or doesn’t look good and various other factors is
it raining whatever that sort of is discounted in
the price so there’s no sort of structure though it’s a bit harder to
understand specifically what the price should be
however on tennis it’s pretty simple players start at a certain price and
then if they win the match it’s 101 and it’s a graduation a step process between
that and the end of the match if you want to understand how that works then
fire up tennis trader and it’s one of the most complicated things that we’ve
ever done but this explains the structure of a match very well now the
thing to bear in mind is that as the match progresses this will shift and
change subtly pending upon what’s going on within the
match itself so if we look for example at the set matrix this gives you a good
idea of the way that a match could progress this assumes that de Baca is
the server within this match and these are all the possible paths at the end of
each game that the set could take you can see there’s quite a large variety of
them but also underneath you see all of the odds for de Baca and and Hassan or
Hassan I don’t know how you pronounce that could be either of those will say
his opponent that’s probably the best way to summarize it but you can
basically see if de Baca is serving first in its level then he’s going to be
at 2:09 or there abouts and if you see if that remains the same all the way up
to the end you can see that that’s going to remain pretty much the same because
obviously their level however if he wins a game you can see that his odds
shortened and if he loses a game then that changes as well but you can
basically see the path that the odds would take so when you look at this
first set in this match depending upon what the scores are going to be this is
very likely how these odds will play out now there could be some individual
variation in a game because say you know he stretches for shot and then puts his
hand down and rubs his hamstring then people will start discounting that and
you know say one player has a lot of momentum and the other players think you
know I’m just giving up on this set then that’s something you can’t see in these
stats before the match has started it’s just impossible so the variation to
these odds will give you a clue as to where the momentum is shifting within
the match and whether you think there’s a potential value within there but let’s
understand how you would really get to grips with all of this so if you want to
mess around on tennis trader you would obviously set it up correctly I’m not
going to go through the setup process here because they’ll just extend the
length of the video but once you’ve set up the type of match
who’s serving first and you’ve calibrated that then you can mess around
with all different score lines if you want if you want to mess around and
figure out what’s going to happen when and how that’s going to happen but let’s
look at that set matrix again but illustrate a few points within here
so what we’re saying in this match is Dibakar are serving first and it’s love
all so let’s look at the first two paths that we could take through this
individual set so of course he could go on to win this particular game in which
case we would follow that path or he could get broken in which case we would
follow that path and the concept here really if you look at these starting
odds of 209 is if he wins the game you will gain nine ticks and if he loses the
game you can see that we lose considerably more so the concept here is
that you know you’re going to gain 50 odds ticks if he gets broken but you’ll
only gain nine if he doesn’t get broken so you can see that that’s a sort of
five to one ratio so if if you’re thinking about this logically you would
say if we’re looking at sort of one in five chance what you’re sort of saying
here is if you do one over five that’s going to work out that’s 20% you’re
going to say you know will you get broken more than 20% of the time is
there a situation in this match that leads me to believe that he will get
broken 20% of the time or basically from a trading perspective can I predict a
break of surf better than one in five times so that’s the way that you would
necessarily look at an opportunity of a break in that first game however you
know within tennis you’re going to have a variety of setups so what you’ll
probably find is if you cast your eye later on in the match here so you know
say it’s for all and we’re going in to that fifth into that ninth game rather
then if you think about what’s going on in the back his head at this particular
moment in time he’s going to be thinking well if I hold this game then I can put
pressure on my opponent’s serve but his opponent will be thinking well if I can
put pressure on his serve I could actually end up serving for this
particular set I could end up winning this set 6-4 and if it’s for all within
the match then basically I’m going to highlight this by drawing a nice little
pattern around it and you can see that this is a much more
critical game than the nil nil that we saw at the start of the match so you can
see getting a break of serve at the start of the match is obviously
important because he can build on that but also there’s more opportunity for
the player to come back so the path that they could follow in this particular
match could sort of go like this it sort of could go somewhere like that and then
they end up at 4:00 or so when you look at that you can immediately see that at
the beginning of the match there’s an opportunity to break but there could be
a break back but as we approach the business end of the set a break there
will be much more significant so you can see it goes from 208 let me just erase
some of this so that it’s a little bit clearer for you so you can see we go
from odds of 208 here to 195 so the opportunity here is for an 8 + 5 a 13
tick profit in this direction however if he does get broken then you can see here
that it goes to 306 so if you lay with 100 pounds
you could trade out for a hundred pound profit on the trade at this particular
point in time so the point I’m trying to make here is okay we looked at that
one-in-five scenario a second ago but if you look up here that one-in-five
scenario was suddenly completely different we’re talking in effect here a
thirteen over a ninety eight chance basically so I’m gonna have to get my
calculator out to do this one and some of you will be able to do this
in your head but basically you’re looking here at a warm in 7.5 occurrence
so when it’s four all in the first set can you get a break of serve or do you
feel that there’s a situation that’s leading up to break observe that you can
predict more than one in seven and a half matches because if you can your
trade is on and you should be able to profit from this particular scenario so
so this is the way that you would typically set up a trade you know this
is what I would define is framing a trade you’re basically saying you know
depending upon where we are within this match and depending upon the current
score what happens next and how does that influence my opportunity of getting
a positive trade out of this particular market and that will vary quite
dramatically depending upon where you are in the set but also think about it
it will vary dramatically depending on the path that is followed in the
incentive to get a particular result so if the player wins the first game breaks
in the second then wins the next game he’s going to be at three love so you
can see if we look at that you can see just with one break he’ll be priced at
162 so the best way to understand what we’re looking at here in terms of the
layout within tennis trader is effectively with backer
serving first this line here is him holding his serve this line here is a
break of serve and this line here would be a breakup so can you see what if what
effective it happens in tennis is you jump from one state to the other so this
would be a breakup this would be with surf that would be a break down and you
can see that the path would sort of follow like that now I’m looking at it
really simplistically but that’s simply because I haven’t got hours to spend
with you looking at the detail of how you would actively trade this market but
in essence that’s sort of what you’re trying to do you’re looking at the
opportunities within the match you’re seeing how that could play out
and that presents the trading opportunity for you so say by some
miracle he was five one up and then he tried a couple of little shots that
didn’t quite work out it wouldn’t really affect him to start with and then you
can see that necessarily that wouldn’t affect him if he went on to lose a
couple of games but then look at the difference between that and losing a few
games suddenly you’ve got a dramatic shift in odds so again you can sort of
do that calculation there and you can sort of say you know if if we’re looking
to do something at five one up how many times do we have to get it you know two
five four and what scenario would lead up to that so the way that you should be
thinking in tennis is not that this could occur because these are all
theoretical probables that could follow a number of different paths so I mean
you know this this one would follow this sort of path here which is probably a
little less likely but what you’re saying is you know if the score is 5-1
in this set and you know we think that we’re going to possibly get out at this
point here look at the difference between the two and say is there a
reason for that to happen it do we see some evidence of that happening is there
a scenario that will lead to that happening maybe is getting a bit smart
and is taking a few dodgy shots you know just to sort of show off because these
miles in front he’s thinking well it’s not really an issue because even if I
lose the next game I’m still gonna finish it off and then he loses next on
thinks well that’s not a problem because I’m serving for this and then suddenly
the break occurs you’re trying to position yourself ahead of that it’s not
about the fact that this scenario this future exists its anticipating that that
is about to happen but then looking at the maths of it and saying well I think
I can do that I think this is a reasonable set of odds so you can very
often if you dig deep enough I have done this before I have highlighted scenarios
I’m saying well you know the downside on this particular trade is quite small
actually that’s not small is it the downside on this trade is quite small
but the upside is potentially huge if you think that this is worthwhile and
that’s the essence of trading you’re looking for scenarios where the
potential downside is minimal so you know you’ve got
– downside here quite small but the opportunity for some upside as long as
you’ve got some reason to do that because potentially large but even then
you know if you settle into a pattern of working very hard on these sort of
scenarios where you’re looking at scenarios that are fixed then you will
get better and better at spotting when those opportunities are likely to come
around so it’s much better than watching a match seeing the match sort of meander
all over the place and then trying to make a decision on what’s going to
happen next it’s better to look for a particular setup say for two up in the
first cent and then actually take a position based upon that and practice
the setups that allow you to execute a strategy around a particular score and
of course you can get Bettinger to hunt for scores for you if the live score
feed is provided by their fare for that particular tournament and then it would
just flag to you when that scenario is presented then you switch to that match
or maybe a watching that already or something coming up to that score and
you can make a decision on it at that particular point in time now the
interesting thing as well is if we have a little bit of a closer look at this
say we’re going to go for if it’s three all in a match and we’re looking for a
break of serve at that particular point in time to grab this big move in the
market here like it pretty much an eighty tick move the thing to bear in
mind is that actually if we look at bet Angel you can actually switch to the
game matrix and what the game matrix will do is present you with what will
happen on that particular scenario so if we say three games all and we go to the
game matrix we were basically saying that we were looking at a move from 208
to 287 but if we actually look at the game matrix where does that sort of 287
occur well it occurs at the end of the game when it’s in this into backers
favour but maybe if you set your sights a little bit lower you can see here you
can get a thirty four tick move or perhaps you know a slightly bigger one
given a range of other scenarios so the interesting thing about looking at it
this way is you can actually position at your closing trade in the market at a
price that is a little bit more conducive to getting filled so say we
set our sights at some around 230 years you can see a range of scenarios here
that will allow you to identify points at which 230 would occur so you know
maybe at fifteen thirty with a double fault with a single fault rather a
second serve is the word I’m looking for it would touch about two thirty so you
can sort of draw an arc of opportunity here which is sort of basically saying
every scenario within here would give me what I need and therefore when you look
at it from that perspective you can sort of say well okay you know we could go
for the break of serve that could occur within the set but why do we just go for
a mini break why don’t we go and you can see the scenario here is we’re basically
saying if were two points up we’re more or less saying here if were a point up
and basically serving to save the game would also occur so we’ve got a number
of different scenarios here or indeed we have here 15 30 a point down but maybe
on second serve would generate the potential payoff for us so rather than
just looking at one particular scenario here we could actually generate a
different type of opportunity by basically looking at the opportunity
with inside to the game and then perhaps positioning our closing trade opening
the trade at beginning of there the game in closing the trade by putting an order
in based upon where we think the price is going to reach and that’s importance
too as well because if you try and trade during a game you’re obviously going to
get a bit of a problem here because you’ve got people on court that are
going to be able to see the point before you so you would only ever enter these
positions at the end of a game or if you know where the odds are likely to be
given a certain score in the next game when they’re basically swapping sides
sitting down or getting ready to serve then that’s the opportunity to get into
the market without having to give away any margin to anybody they can see
something that you can’t but yeah when you’re looking at trading
any particular market what you’re actually looking at really is the
potential payoff you’re saying if this happens what happens from here and what
will the odds be and therefore when should I get in or out of a particular
position within the market what’s the potential payoff what’s my chance of
executing that trade profitably and that is how you should be trading tennis you

David Frank

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9 COMMENTS

  1. Rodrigo Moreira Da Silva Posted on January 26, 2019 at 9:30 pm

    He always complicate things… lol

    Reply
  2. Alex H Posted on January 26, 2019 at 9:50 pm

    Great video. I've always wondered how those court side traders operate. Do they fly around the world following the tour??….Must be quite a life.

    Reply
  3. Andy Shortland Posted on January 27, 2019 at 12:07 am

    makes perfect sense, thanks

    Reply
  4. Jacek D Posted on January 27, 2019 at 4:14 am

    Great video. More please 🙂

    Reply
  5. Philosopher K Posted on February 15, 2019 at 4:45 pm

    Peter any chance of making a similar video for cricket?

    Reply
  6. Servingforthematch Posted on February 25, 2019 at 1:27 am

    peter there are covers in tennis scalping? ad ex lay the game

    Reply
  7. Servingforthematch Posted on March 6, 2019 at 5:15 am

    where can I find statistics like: Who has the quickest joke, who is the tennis player who recovers more break points, or the tennis player who does more brekkare. can you give me some site of these statistics? if there are not these, give me another, but have useful statistics. I know only Tennisprediction and tennis temple, but I would like something more professional. anyway I'll have to give a database by myself ..

    Reply
  8. Ozzybob Posted on March 16, 2019 at 8:22 pm

    Thanks for the video. A piece of constructive criticism would be that if you mention something like another video, or website, or anything else that can be linked, link it in the description. Other than that, cheers.

    Reply
  9. Servingforthematch Posted on May 2, 2019 at 4:36 pm

    Hello. When the loss exceeds 60% of our stake. instead of switching players, it is better to cash out and then bet the other player. It's true? to be precise, if I understand correctly, if the loss is over 50% it is better to make cash out and switch. quite right?

    Reply
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